College Admission Trends Include Increased Reliance on Early Decision and Wait Lists

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Acceptance Rates on Par With Previous Year

The slight decline in overall acceptance rates at US colleges and universities reported last year looks to have leveled off, according to the 2010 State of College Admission report released today by the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC). Meanwhile, uncertainty in a tight economy seems to have increased some colleges' reliance on Early Decision and wait lists. T

Although the recent decline in acceptance rates has leveled off in the past two admission cycles, college yield rates continue to decline. The average yield rate for the Fall 2009 admission cycle was down to 42.9 percent-down from 49 percent in 2001 - meaning that institutions, on average, are enrolling smaller proportions of their accepted students. The rise in applications submitted by individual students has made it difficult for colleges to predict how many accepted students will ultimately enroll.

The 2010 State of College Admission also documents changes in application volume and enrollment management strategies that may reflect the response of both students and colleges to the economic downturn. Although most colleges reported increases in the number of applications for Fall 2009, the largest proportion since 1996 (29 percent) reported decreases. Growth in Early Decision, Early Action and wait list activity also may be attributed to increased uncertainty among colleges due to the trend of declining yield rates and concern about the economy's effect on students' choices. The 2010 State of College Admission shows that a large majority of colleges that use Early Decision and Early Action reported an increased number of students accepted through these policies. In addition, a larger share of colleges used wait lists in comparison to most other recent years, and the percentage of students accepted off wait lists was up slightly. The report also shows an increased gap in acceptance rates between ED and regular decision applicants, which may rekindle debates about the effects of Early Decision admission, particularly as it relates to access for under-represented populations.

Overview of the 2010 State of College Admission report:

- Number of High School Graduates Has Peaked after Decade of Growth: The number of high school graduates in the US reached a peak of 3.33 million in 2008-09 after more than a decade of steady growth. An estimated 3.29 million students graduated in 2009-10. The number of graduates will continue to decline through 2014-15, but will rebound to 3.4 million by 2018-19.

- Application Growth Slows: Although most colleges continued to experience increases in the number of applications they received for Fall 2009, the largest proportion since 1996 (29 percent) reported decreases.

- Colleges Accept 67 Percent of Applicants: The average selectivity rate-percentage of applicants who are offered admission-at four-year colleges and universities in the United States was 67 percent for Fall 2009. The average institutional yield rate-percentage of admitted students who enroll-was 43 percent.

- Online Applications Continue to Increase: For the Fall 2009 admission cycle, four-year colleges and universities received an average of 80 percent of their applications online, up from 72 percent in Fall 2008, 68 percent in Fall 2007 and 58 percent in Fall 2006.

- Early Decision and Early Action Activity Increases: 65 percent of colleges with ED policies reported increases in the number of students accepted through Early Decision, compared to 43 percent in 2008 and 36 percent in 2007. Nearly three-quarters of colleges reported an increase in Early Action applications and Early Action admits.

- At Colleges with Early Decision (ED) Policies, Gap In Acceptance Rates Between ED and Regular Decision Applicants Increases: For the Fall 2009 admission cycle, colleges with Early Decision policies reported a 15-percentage point gap in acceptance rates between ED applicants and the overall applicant pool (70 percent versus 55 percent), up from an 8 percentage point gap in Fall 2006 (61 percent compared to 53 percent).

- Admission Offices Identify Grades, High School Curriculum and Test Scores as Top Factors: The top factors in the admission decision were (in order): grades in college preparatory courses, strength of curriculum, standardized admission test scores, and overall high school grade point average. Among the next most important factors were the essay, teacher and counselor recommendations, extracurricular activities, class rank, and student's demonstrated interest.

The State of College Admission report is an annual analysis of surveys of colleges and universities nationwide. The data helps counselors, admission professionals, students, and parents examine the transition process to postsecondary education. The 2010 edition contains analysis of key trends in the admission process, including information on high school graduation, college enrollment, the cost of applying, factors in the admission decision, social media trends in the admission process, and more.

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Coordination Efforts Could Boost After-School Programming, RAND Study Finds

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Coordinating the work of the many different institutions involved in after-school activities -- including schools, nonprofits and municipal agencies like parks and libraries -- holds the promise of making programs better and more accessible to urban children and teens who need them, according to a new RAND Corporation report.

The study, "Hours of Opportunity," examines the coordinating efforts put into place by five cities that sought to improve and widen the reach of out-of-school-time programs -- after-school programs, summer school and other efforts offered outside standard classroom hours. Each region studied received funding from a Wallace Foundation out-of-school-time initiative launched in 2003.

"This initiative provided a proof of principle -- that organizations across cities could work together toward increasing access, quality, data-based decision making and sustainability," the report says.

The study is in three volumes, the first covering overall lessons, the second management information systems and the third profiles of five city-based efforts.

Research Brief
Volume 2
Volume 3


"Cities that offer high-quality, highly accessible after-school and out-of-school-time programs can help children develop to their fullest potential," said Jennifer Sloan McCombs, the report's lead author and an education policy researcher at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. "Our research finds that the most successful efforts coordinate their assets and resources citywide, enjoy strong support and leadership from their mayors, and they use rich data systems to assess and deliver their programs."

At the same time, the report cautions that the efforts are too new to have withstood the test of time, and it is uncertain how they will fare once Wallace funding ends, especially as state and local governments are cutting funding for schools and other municipal services. Moreover, these efforts are not easy to put together and face a number of challenges. Perhaps the most prominent are the restrictions government and foundations placed on funding.

The cities participating in the initiative -- Boston, Chicago, New York, Providence, Rhode Island, and Washington, D.C. -- received Wallace grants ranging from $5 million to $12 million. Like many other regions, the cities faced this problem: the many institutions involved with out-of-school-time programs typically work in isolation from one another so that services are too fragmented to ensure high-quality opportunities for children citywide. This means there often is not enough programming in neighborhoods where it is badly needed, and too much of what is available is of poor quality, according to researchers.

The Wallace-funded efforts sought to change this by developing what amounts to citywide out-of-school-time systems that draw the institutions together to work as a coherent whole. The work also involved introducing features to help the overall system run well, including: quality standards applied to all the out-of-school-time programs; staff training to improve program quality; incentives for program providers to meet attendance targets; and regular computerized collection of data through newly-installed management information systems.

These information systems, which gathered data on basics such as how many kids were enrolled and daily attendance, allowed communities for the first time to make timely and informed decisions about programming, according to the study.

One key finding is that local system-building efforts get an important boost when mayors strongly back them by taking steps such as creating advisory positions to improve cooperation between different municipal agencies and by demanding information on progress.

"'Hours of Opportunity' demonstrates that with the commitment of mayors, cities can play a powerful role in ensuring that children have greater access to high-quality out-of-school-time programs," said M. Christine DeVita, president of The Wallace Foundation. "The report outlines key steps -- including tracking children's participation, setting goals for attendance and setting quality standards -- that we hope other cities will consider taking."


Other key findings include:

- Cities that used system-building strategies were able to increase participation in out-of-school-time programs. New York City almost doubled the number of students served (45,000 to 80,000), Providence nearly tripled (500 to 1,700), Boston launched out-of-school-time programs in five schools serving almost 1,000 students, and Washington D.C., which began its effort in a handful of middle schools, has gone on to offer programs in every city public school.

- Each city had unique circumstances that helped determine who would lead the effort and what the initial undertakings would be. In some cases, the efforts were located in schools or city agencies, while in other cases they were based in nonprofit organizations. "The decision about who will lead the effort and the structure of coordination needs to take into account the assets at hand, the locus of control, and the skills and talents of leaders," the study found.

- Through early planning, cities were able to develop a vision and goals shared among the various out-of-school-time players. This planning considered the specific resources in place, the organizations involved, the challenges faced and the funding available. This allowed those involved to identify common problems that better out-of-school-time programming could help ease, as well as agree-upon targets for improvements.

- Investments in data collection and analysis have multiplier effects. Management information systems that collect data on student enrollment, attendance and demographics allow cities to assess success, improve programs, and make the case for continued or increased funding.

- Support from schools was crucial, both to permit the use of school facilities and because principals and school staff could help encourage attendance at after-school programs.

- Cities were able to communicate with families and students about out-of-school-time program opportunities in order to increase enrollment. Chicago and New York City launched Web-based program locators, which allow families to identify programs by location, theme and grade level. The Wallace Foundation has invested $58 million in city system-building since 2003, to help develop, identify and disseminate knowledge about the key steps cities can take to increase access to and the quality of after-school programs for children and youth. In January 2008, the Wallace Foundation commissioned the RAND Corporation to document the progress through spring 2009 of these cities toward their goals and to examine the development and use of management information systems to improve the quality of programs. The researchers also studied data systems in three additional cities -- Denver, Louisville and San Francisco.

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No Time to Wait: Creating Contemporary School Structures for Students Today and Tomorrow,

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NASBE's new policy report, No Time to Wait: Creating Contemporary School Structures for Students Today and Tomorrow, concludes that for the U.S. to prosper and compete in the 21st century, the education system will need to change its goals and practices so all students may succeed. That is, as information has become ubiquitous, schools need to emphasize 21st century skills such as analyzing, synthesizing, and creating along with understanding and applying the basics.

In this report and its companion study, Next Generation Learning: Transforming the Role of Educators Today for the Students of Tomorrow, state board of education members from across the country determined that developing sound, new structures for education and the methods of teaching within those systems is not only inevitable, but critical. Here, structures for education are not the physical plant, important as that is, but the systems of pedagogy and assessments, school calendars, credits hours, and all that follows.

Key Findings

Complete report

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