College Admission Trends Include Increased Reliance on Early Decision and Wait Lists

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Acceptance Rates on Par With Previous Year

The slight decline in overall acceptance rates at US colleges and universities reported last year looks to have leveled off, according to the 2010 State of College Admission report released today by the National Association for College Admission Counseling (NACAC). Meanwhile, uncertainty in a tight economy seems to have increased some colleges' reliance on Early Decision and wait lists. T

Although the recent decline in acceptance rates has leveled off in the past two admission cycles, college yield rates continue to decline. The average yield rate for the Fall 2009 admission cycle was down to 42.9 percent-down from 49 percent in 2001 - meaning that institutions, on average, are enrolling smaller proportions of their accepted students. The rise in applications submitted by individual students has made it difficult for colleges to predict how many accepted students will ultimately enroll.

The 2010 State of College Admission also documents changes in application volume and enrollment management strategies that may reflect the response of both students and colleges to the economic downturn. Although most colleges reported increases in the number of applications for Fall 2009, the largest proportion since 1996 (29 percent) reported decreases. Growth in Early Decision, Early Action and wait list activity also may be attributed to increased uncertainty among colleges due to the trend of declining yield rates and concern about the economy's effect on students' choices. The 2010 State of College Admission shows that a large majority of colleges that use Early Decision and Early Action reported an increased number of students accepted through these policies. In addition, a larger share of colleges used wait lists in comparison to most other recent years, and the percentage of students accepted off wait lists was up slightly. The report also shows an increased gap in acceptance rates between ED and regular decision applicants, which may rekindle debates about the effects of Early Decision admission, particularly as it relates to access for under-represented populations.

Overview of the 2010 State of College Admission report:

- Number of High School Graduates Has Peaked after Decade of Growth: The number of high school graduates in the US reached a peak of 3.33 million in 2008-09 after more than a decade of steady growth. An estimated 3.29 million students graduated in 2009-10. The number of graduates will continue to decline through 2014-15, but will rebound to 3.4 million by 2018-19.

- Application Growth Slows: Although most colleges continued to experience increases in the number of applications they received for Fall 2009, the largest proportion since 1996 (29 percent) reported decreases.

- Colleges Accept 67 Percent of Applicants: The average selectivity rate-percentage of applicants who are offered admission-at four-year colleges and universities in the United States was 67 percent for Fall 2009. The average institutional yield rate-percentage of admitted students who enroll-was 43 percent.

- Online Applications Continue to Increase: For the Fall 2009 admission cycle, four-year colleges and universities received an average of 80 percent of their applications online, up from 72 percent in Fall 2008, 68 percent in Fall 2007 and 58 percent in Fall 2006.

- Early Decision and Early Action Activity Increases: 65 percent of colleges with ED policies reported increases in the number of students accepted through Early Decision, compared to 43 percent in 2008 and 36 percent in 2007. Nearly three-quarters of colleges reported an increase in Early Action applications and Early Action admits.

- At Colleges with Early Decision (ED) Policies, Gap In Acceptance Rates Between ED and Regular Decision Applicants Increases: For the Fall 2009 admission cycle, colleges with Early Decision policies reported a 15-percentage point gap in acceptance rates between ED applicants and the overall applicant pool (70 percent versus 55 percent), up from an 8 percentage point gap in Fall 2006 (61 percent compared to 53 percent).

- Admission Offices Identify Grades, High School Curriculum and Test Scores as Top Factors: The top factors in the admission decision were (in order): grades in college preparatory courses, strength of curriculum, standardized admission test scores, and overall high school grade point average. Among the next most important factors were the essay, teacher and counselor recommendations, extracurricular activities, class rank, and student's demonstrated interest.

The State of College Admission report is an annual analysis of surveys of colleges and universities nationwide. The data helps counselors, admission professionals, students, and parents examine the transition process to postsecondary education. The 2010 edition contains analysis of key trends in the admission process, including information on high school graduation, college enrollment, the cost of applying, factors in the admission decision, social media trends in the admission process, and more.

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